Changing Dynamics of Nordic-India Cooperation in the Arctic

Once described as the "icy sea", the global High North of 21st century is on the high tables of decision-making due to melting of its multi-year ice sheets and emergence of a new trade route as well as possibility of large deposit of natural gas, oil and minerals. For which, most of the global players intend to lay their claim. Noticeably, the Arctic includes territories of 8 states (the Arctic 8) i.e. Canada, USA (via Alaska), Russia, Denmark (via Greenland), Finland, Norway, Sweden and Iceland; along with their autonomous territories, Territorial seas and Exclusive Economic Zones and International waters. Additionally, unlike its southern polar counterpart, Arctic is not governed by a single comprehensive treaty.

It is to be noted that Arctic, at present, is net exporter of roughly 10% of world's oil and 25% of natural gas. The U.S. Geological Survey (2008) revealed that Arctic is the home to 13% and 30% of world's undiscovered oil and natural gas. Second comes the Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOC). According to NIKKEI Asia, the Northern Sea Route or Sevmorput Route can reduce the distance between Europe and Asia by 30% to 40%. The northern sea route is about 13,000 kms long while the regular route via Suez Canal is approximately 21,000 km. This means reduced international bunkers demand, decrease in transit time, possible reduction of transit fees & shipping costs and strategic alternatives to chokepoints. Estimates of an accessible northwest passage by 2040-59 between Asia and Canada via Arctic (as opposed to the regular route via Panama Canal) will reduce distance by 7,000 kms.

Currently, Nordic countries, who are all Arctic states, confront new challenges and prospects. Nordics interest in arctic is grounded not just in resources and SLOC, but also in integrated lifestyles and livelihood of indigenous communities and their identity with the nature. As India and Nordic countries seek to solidify their partnership, Arctic bears the potential to be the poster child of their concerted initiatives. Moreover, Climate change is an issue deep seated in the heart of Arctic in the form of threats of biodiversity losses and food insecurity in the region. It is integrated in the lifestyle if indigenous European Arctic communities as the Saami in Finland, Sweden and Norway & Kalaallit Inuits in Greenland.

India’s Rising Footprints in the Arctic

India's interests in the Arctic mostly concerns about improving and contributing to the knowledge pool on the North pole and its ecological significance, its synergy with the Himalayas ("the third pole" as per the Government of India's Arctic policy) and it's connect with Indian monsoon (which remains as a backbone of Indian agriculture, livelihood and economy). India's Arctic Policy and the reports of the National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research highlight such interests. However, strategic interests are also paramount including those for optimizing Arctic energy and other non-living resources & tapping the benefits of northern sea routes. However, India views this engagement as a two-way process where India will contribute to regional understanding, policy-making and best practices out of relevant Indian know-hows. Noticeably, India's engagement in the Arctic dates prior to its independence as Colonial India was a signatory of the 1920 Svalbard Treaty concerning Spitsbergen archipelago.

Post-independence, India's involvement in Arctic affairs recorded a defining moment with the signing of United Nations Convention on the Law of Seas. India is a signatory of the treaty and has time and again affirmed its commitment to UNCLOS obligations. Unlike Antarctica, Arctic lacks terra firma and is thereby governed as per the UNCLOS. India has upheld the Law of Seas as the governance framework for the High North. In 2007, India launched its first Arctic expedition. The following year, India established the Himadri research base at Ny-Alesund, Spitsbergen, Svalbard. In 2014, India established a multi-sensor moored observatory 'IndArc' in Kongsfjorden. In 2016, the Gruvebadet laboratory came up at Ny-Alesund Svalbard. At home, the Indian government has established the NCPOR (under the Ministry of Earth Sciences) as the nodal agency for polar research and it signed an MoU with the Norwegian Polar Institute to collaborate on advancing polar sciences.

However, India's inclusion in the Arctic Council reflects its political and economic ambitions. India was accorded the Observer status in the arctic Council in 2013 Kiruna Ministerial Meeting. In 2019, India was re-elected to its Observer seat. India's inclusion was supported by the Nordics in light of Chinese activities in 2010s. In early 2010s, indicators from Chinese politicians and scientists suggested Chinese interest in the region. In 2012, the first Chinese ice-breaker crossed the Northern Sea Route. In this scenario, India's inclusion was sought as a balancing factor. The 2022 "India's Arctic Policy: Building a Partnership for Sustainable Development" policy document was released by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, indicating that India looks at Arctic through ecological and environmental lenses. Cooperation and harmonization of policy and academic efforts towards Arctic has been the cornerstone of India's Arctic missions.

Additionally, the impetus of cooperation in High North is a subset of the robust India-Nordic ties and increasing strategic convergence. The European Arctic states view India as a key partner. The Nordics have extended their support to India's call for UN Security Council reforms and reiterated India's concerns on WTO's appellate body. The Nordics also supported India's membership of the Nuclear Supplier's Group. For Nordics, India's promising market rooted in the growth of upper-middle and high-income households, growing economy and skilled population resource makes India a lucrative choice. The other way round, Nordic superiority in innovation, education services, renewables, clean energy pathways and sustainable technologies and their know-how is beneficial for India.

India and Nordics cooperation on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) can help in "transforming shipping industry towards low carbon", in light of the maritime sector's phased induction into EU's Emissions Trading System (ETS) from 2024. Thus, NSR is instrumental in reducing the cost of shipping. Indian experts have joined the Russian NSR environmental monitoring project with Finland, Norway and Iceland. India and Nordic convergence in upholding the paramountcy of multilateral institutions and free trade for prosperity of all essentially demands free and open sea lanes of communication including those of the Arctic.

Policy Paralysis in Arctic Council in the wake of Russia-Ukraine war

The shuttering of the region's governance mechanisms with the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, mostly by the initiative of the 7 western Arctic states (now all included in NATO) has posed to be a significant challenge. Be it pausing of Arctic Council activities of withdrawal of Russia from the Barents Euro-Arctic Council has effectively closed the doors of engagements with Russia, the largest Arctic littoral. One of the biggest challenges for the European Arctic states is the dilemma of global commons status and the regionalization of the issue. Arctic is a "quasi-global common". The Central Arctic Ocean or the Arctic High Seas is "common heritage of mankind" under UNCLOS. Apart from the High seas, lay the areas with varying degrees of national entitlement and jurisdiction- land of Arctic states, territorial waters, EEZs and continental shelf. The Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) is the body that makes recommendations on continental shelf in consonance with the UNCLOS post 1982. However, both UNCLOS and CLCS have experienced their shares of disregard and contested appeals. In 2007, Russia planted a titanium national flag on the North polar sea bed of Lomonosov ridge that Russia claimed as a part of its continental shelf. Another instance was the 2013 Arctic Sunrise confiscation by Russian officials that was later declared unlawful under Russia's UNCLOS commitments by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.

Challenges to India-Nordic Cooperation

The northward expansion of NATO has furthered the volatility of the region. With Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO, all European Arctic states have formalized a military alliance with the west. This has rendered new geopolitical flashpoints where Arctic is being increasingly militarized. Military exercises by NATO and joint and individual exercises by countries and military buildup with increase in bases and drills have heightened tensions, particularly in light of Russia-Ukraine war.

In 2022, Indian troops participated in Russian Vistok-2022 military exercises in Russian Far East (along with China). The following year, an India army contingent participated in a Joint training in Alaska with US. As military maneuverability increases with melting of permafrost and ice sheets, direct access to critical infrastructure and indigenous communities increases. Anti-Access Area Denial systems enhances long-distance lethality. China, Russia, USA possess such systems. Russia has employed it in the Arctic. Today, the power dynamics have altered with expansion of NATO's security perimeter to Arctic. Prospects of military conflict drown any possibility of cooperation in light of irreversible damages to one of global sinks.

The Russia-Ukraine war has exposed many deep-seated fissures between India and Nordic countries. The difference begins with the very perception of the war- for India it is a regional war with global implications while for Nordics the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a global issue. In this context, India maintaining ties with Russia has posed a dilemma. The Nordics, who paused Arctic Council activities, are apprehensive about India's growing engagement with Russia that includes convergence on Arctic. On a positive note, India-Nordic cooperation in the arctic is not dampened with the exception of occasional diplomatic jabs till now yet India must proactively ensure that this status quo persists.

Implications Amid the Emergence of Northern Sea Route (NSR)

For India, Arctic's Sea routes will shift the leverage away from the current strategic sea lanes of communication passing via the Indian Ocean. The northern route alternative will reduce the strategic 'Malacca' leverage of India. China is especially eager to jump on the Arctic wagons of NSR for this reason. Thus, NSR is the double-edged issue in India-Nordic cooperation owing to Chinese assertive practices. Arctic routes often need an ice-breaker ship accompanying the freight ships. China is producing ice-breakers (not just ice-breaking research vessels) with indigenous know-how. This is a part of China's arctic strategy. In 2014, a year after its inclusion in the Arctic Council as an Observer, Chinese President Xi Jinping called China as a "polar great power" in an address. In the 2018 Chinese Arctic strategy white paper, China was termed as "a near-Arctic nation". Today, China's flagship Belt Road Initiative has a polar component-the Polar Silk Road to enhance "connectivity and sustainable economic and social development of the Arctic" (China's Arctic policy, 2018). China has established the China-Nordic Arctic Research Center for research cooperation in Arctic. Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) is an important driver of China's Arctic ambitions. However, China's disregard of the UNCLOS and the 2016 Permanent court of Justice arbitration in its activities in South China Sea posits larger questions and concerns, given that Nordic countries, Arctic states and India have upheld UNCLOS as the governance mechanism in Arctic High Seas. However, the silver lining for India lies in the fact that Nordic countries are not among the biggest takers of BRI due to "riskification" of Chinese investments.

Lastly, despite Indian engagement with European Arctic as part of long-standing relations with Nordic countries, new and potential areas of cooperation are the future of India-Nordic cooperation. These include traditional food systems, Arctic tourism, Blue Economy and Blue Bio-economy, Digital Public infrastructure and Digital Public Goods. However, India and Nordic countries face certain hurdles as the northward expansion of NATO, the Nordic dilemma of hoping the resurrection of Arctic Exceptionalism and also obliging to their European counterpart's punitive measures & the China factor in the Arctic. In a nutshell, the Nordic route to Arctic is the future of India's engagement with Arctic.