With India in leadership role in Quad, the ‘string’ stitching China’s ‘pearls’ now doomed to snap

With the Quadrilateral Alliance emerging as a de facto security alliance at the Quad Summit in the U.S. this September, the ‘string of pearls’ strategy of China to surround India and deny it access to the Indo – Pacific for trade and commerce is now doomed to fail.

Now that India has been projected at the Summit as the future leader of Quad, the alliance will have the stability to minimize the uncertainties about its future associated with the coming presidential election in the U.S.

As a security alliance, this grouping of the four powerful nations of Australia, Japan, India and the U.S. will deny the Chinese military supremacy in the waters of the Indo-Pacific. The Quad partners have been participating in the Malabar Exercise for the past few years; but economic cooperation, rather than security, had hitherto been the main objective behind the formation of the alliance. Now after the Quad Summit in the U.S. and the Wilmington Declaration on September 21, the change in emphasis on the aims of Quad is evident.

As the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of the Australian Government had earlier stated: “The Quad’s positive and practical agenda is focused on delivering outcomes for the Indo-Pacific in response to the region’s priorities and most pressing challenges; including health security, climate change, infrastructure, critical and emerging technology, cyber security, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, space, maritime security, countering disinformation and counter-terrorism.” Working groups within Quad on technological innovation and supply-chain resilience ensure economic security among the Quad partners.

Now in the Wilmington Declaration, the change in emphasis has been a marked one. “Four years since elevating Quad to a leader-level format, the Quad is more strategically aligned than ever before and is a force for good that delivers real, positive and enduring impact for the Indo-Pacific. Anchored by shared values, we seek to uphold the international order based on the rule of law.” No country is mentioned by name, but the needle points to China which is trying to establish its hegemony over the South China Sea, the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

The most important clause of the Wilmington Declaration is the one on maritime security. “Today we are announcing a new regional Maritime Initiative for Training in the Indo-Pacific (MAITRI) to enable our partners in the region to maximize the use of tools provided through Quad partner initiatives to monitor and secure their waters, enforce their laws and deter unlawful behaviour. We welcome the launch of a Quad maritime legal dialogue to support efforts to uphold the rules-based maritime order in the Indo-Pacific.”

China, the world knows by now, is the worst violator in the Indo-Pacific of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea of 1982. Now MAITRI will be a bulwark against the attempts by the Chinese military to establish its hegemony in the Indo-Pacific.

India, with its leading role in Quad, will host the inaugural MAITRI workshop in 2025. The U.S. Coast Guard, the Japan Coast Guard, the Australian Border Force and the Indian Coast Guard have plans to launch in 2025 the first Quad-at-Sea Ship Observer Mission to improve interoperability and advance maritime safety.

Analysts point out that now with the mantle of MAITRI falling on India, there will be a sense of urgency in launching and continuing with the new initiative. For, the Indian Ocean region is a part of the broader domain of the Indo – Pacific and ensuring seamless connectivity through this maritime domain is of vital strategic interest for India.

The definition of the Indo-Pacific region includes the Indian Ocean region. For the U.S., the Indo-Pacific extends to the west coast of India, up to which the domain of the Indo-Pacific Command of the U.S. military extends. Addressing the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore in 2018, Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi said the Indo-Pacific Region extended “from the shores of Africa to that of the America’s.”

Highlighting the economic interest of India in these oceans, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated: “The Malacca Strait and South China Sea connect India to the Pacific and to most of our major partners --- ASEAN, Japan, Republic of Korea, China and the Americas. Our trade in the region is growing rapidly.” For Tokyo, similarly, a free and open East China Sea is important for the economic survival of Japan.

Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea, its belligerence in the East China Sea and its rapid advance in the Indian Ocean region through the Belt and Road Initiative have challenged the established rules-based system that recognizes the oceans as the common heritage of mankind. The problem of China is that it does not have any opening in the Indian Ocean. Its ‘string of pearls strategy’ is to surround and dominate India, which it considers as its rival, in the Indian Ocean region. Countries which today consider India as a partner will end up in the lap of China. The string extends from Hainan Island of China in the east to Gwadar Port in Pakistan in the west and includes stations like Coco Island in Myanmar and Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka. In this entire region, China is developing more firepower with more submarines, destroyers, vessels and ships. They will pose a threat to India’s maritime security.

Quad has developed under the leadership of Joe Biden as the U.S. President. The first Summit of the Quad partners was held in March 2021, soon after Biden took over in White House. If Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris succeeds him in the presidential election in the U.S. in the coming November, the policies introduced by Joe Biden are likely to continue. There is an element of uncertainty if there will be a change in U.S. strategy if Republican Party nominee Donald Trump wins. With India now poised to take the leadership in MAITRI, such initiatives on the ground for a free and open Indo – Pacific will, however, continue in any case.